The Dallas Cowboys 2020 season is nearly here. Thanks to PointsBet Sportsbook, we have point spreads for (nearly) every 2020 NFL regular season game, as well as playoff, divisional, and Super Bowl odds.
There is a lot to analyze here, so let’s dive in:
2019 Dallas Cowboys Season Recap: What Could Have Been
The Cowboys finished the season 8-8 after being in the hunt for the NFC East until late in the season. A Week 16 loss to the Eagles essentially ended their season, and Jason Garrett did not have his contract renewed.
The 8-8 finish was especially disappointing when you consider that the Cowboys finished 8th overall in terms of DVOA including the 2nd ranked offense. This likely (among other things) led to Jason Garrett being let go and bringing in former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy for 2020.
Dallas Cowboys Schedule 2020: Week by Week Analysis
The Cowboys come into the 2020 season ranked 5th according to implied SRS rankings.
The Dallas Cowboys have approximately an average strength of schedule (17th) according to the implied SRS ratings for the upcoming season. Overall, the Cowboys are favored in 12 out of 16 games, with the only significant underdog being at Baltimore in Week 13 (+7).
To start the season, the Cowboys are favored in six out of their first seven games. The Cowboys are only an underdog in Week 3 at Seattle (+2) during that stretch.
In order to simplify the schedule analysis, I have broken down the Cowboys schedule into five groups: Likely Win, Lean Win, Toss Up, Lean Loss, Likely Loss.
Likely Win (8 Games with > 60% Win Probability)
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons: -7 | 67.3% win probability
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns: -5.5 | 63.3% win probability
Week 5 vs. New York Giants: -8.5 | 71.4% win probability
Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -7.5 | 68.7% win probability
Week 7 at Washington Redskins: -8.5 | 71.4% win probability
Week 12 vs. Washington Redskins: -13 | 82.2% win probability
Week 14 at Cincinnati Bengals: -8 | 70.0% win probability
Week 17 at New York Giants: -6 | 64.6% win probability
Lean Win (2 Games with 55-60% Win Probability)
Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% win probability
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% win probability
Toss Up (3 Games with 45-55% Win Probability)
Week 10 at Minnesota Vikings: -0.5 | 49.8% win probability
Week 15 vs. San Francisco 49ers: +1| 45.7% win probability
Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: -1.5 | 52.5% win probability
Lean Loss (2 Games with 40-45% Win Probability)
Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks: +1.5 | 44.4 win probability
Week 8 at Philadelphia Eagles: +2 | 43.0% win probability
Likely Loss (1 Game with < 40% Win Probability)
Week 13 at Baltimore Ravens: +6.5 | 30.9% win probability
Adding it All Up
When you put it all together, the Cowboys season breaks down like this:
- 8 Likely Wins
- 2 Lean Win
- 3 Toss Up
- 2 Lean Loss
- 1 Likely Loss
Based on the current point spreads, the Cowboys seem very likely to win at least 8 games. A favorable early season schedule could set them up with some momentum going into the back half of the season.
NFC East 2020 Win Totals: Where the Cowboys Stand
The NFC East appears to be a two team race: Dallas and Philadelphia. The implied SRS rankings line up with this as well with Dallas ranked 5th and Philadelphia 7th.
If Dallas slips up against either division rival (New York or Washington), Philadelphia could take the NFC East.
PointsBet Sportsbook has set the following over/under lines for season win totals in the NFC East:
- Dallas: 9.5 wins
- Philadelphia: 9.5 wins
- New York: 6 wins
- Washington: 5 wins
In order for the Cowboys to go over 9.5 wins, they would need to win only 2 of the following games (assuming they win their Likely Win games):
- Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% win probability
- Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% win probability
- Week 10 at Minnesota Vikings: -0.5 | 49.8% win probability
- Week 15 vs. San Francisco 49ers: +1| 45.7% win probability
- Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: -1.5 | 52.5% win probability
I have highlighted the games that I think are the most likely Cowboys to win. A Week 1 game at the Rams with a new coach could be a tall order, but the odds say they are favored to win. The next most likely win would be vs. Pittsburgh in Week 9 (58% win probability).
Dallas Cowboys Odds to Win the Super Bowl
The Dallas Cowboys odds to win the Super Bowl currently sit at +1700 at PointsBet Sportsbook (5.6% chance). This is the 6th best odds of any team behind the following:
- Kansas City +500 (16.7% chance)
- Baltimore +600 (14.3% chance)
- San Francisco +900 (10% chance)
- Tampa Bay +1000 (9.1% chance)
- New Orleans +1100 (8.3% chance)
Kansas City and Baltimore are in the AFC, while Tampa Bay and New Orleans are in the same division. If the Cowboys can eek out the #2 seed in the NFC, then they would have home field advantage against either one of those teams in the playoffs.
A potential NFC Championship game at San Francisco (implied SRS ranking of 4th, one spot above Dallas), could be a toss up.
NFC East and Playoff Odds: Take Care of Business
Other markets that are relevant to the Cowboys this season are the NFC East champion odds and odds to make the playoffs.
The Cowboys have a 52% implied probability (-110) to win the NFC East according to PointsBet, slightly edging out Philadelphia (4635%, +115). The division matchups, particularly against the Eagles in Week 8 (+2) and Week 16 (-1.5) could decide the NFC East champion.
In terms of playoff odds, both the Cowboys (-233) and Eagles (-213) are heavy favorites to make it. Teams evolve over the course of a season, so it will be interesting to see how Dallas performs under new coach Mike McCarthy.
In order for the Cowboys to miss the playoffs, they would likely need to win 7 games or fewer. Assuming they win the 7 games they are the most heavily favored in, that would mean the Cowboys would have to lose the following Likely Win and Lean Win games:
- Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% win probability
- Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns: -5.5 | 63.3% win probability
- Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% win probability
These losses would be In addition to losing the rest of the Toss Up, Lean Lose, and Likely Lose games. It seems like it would take a major injury or a rough transition to a new head coach for this to happen.
The Cowboys are setup to be Super Bowl contenders in 2020. Will Mike McCarthy take them to the next level? Only time will tell.
